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US Presidential Legacy on Ethiopian Politics and Economy

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Early U.S.-Ethiopian Relations and the Haile Selassie Era (1900s–1974)

Theodore Roosevelt
The first formal diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Ethiopia were established through a treaty of commerce. While interactions were limited, this foundation set the tone for future relations.

In 1903, Roosevelt sent a delegation to Ethiopia led by Robert P. Skinner, then the U.S. Consul in Marseilles, to establish diplomatic ties and explore trade opportunities.
1901–1909, Republican
R
Woodrow Wilson
During Wilson's presidency, the U.S. maintained a policy of minimal direct intervention in Ethiopia, consistent with his broader isolationist approach. However, Ethiopia began seeking Western alliances as it faced increased European colonial pressure, though little concrete support came from the U.S.
1913–1921, Democrat
D
Warren G. Harding and Calvin Coolidge
Ethiopia continued to build international relationships. Although there was little U.S. aid or trade at this stage, the U.S. tacitly supported Ethiopia’s sovereignty. Emperor Haile Selassie, who would later take the throne, began observing Western governance structures, a move that foreshadowed future alignment with the U.S.
1921–1929, Republicans
R
Herbert Hoover
As Ethiopia faced escalating Italian aggression, the Hoover administration was reluctant to become involved in Ethiopia’s defense, adhering to a policy of non-intervention in African affairs. However, Hoover’s administration indirectly supported Ethiopia by not recognizing Italian sovereignty in Ethiopia.
1929–1933, Republican
R

Haile Selassie’s Modernization Era and Growing U.S. Alliance (1933–1974)

Franklin D. Roosevelt
The Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935–1941) was met with U.S. disapproval. Roosevelt refused to recognize Italian sovereignty, aligning with Haile Selassie’s appeals to the League of Nations. After Ethiopia’s liberation in 1941, the U.S. resumed diplomatic ties and began providing modest support to rebuild Ethiopia.

The United States established a formal relationship with Ethiopia in 1943 under Roosevelt’s leadership, marking the beginning of a closer diplomatic partnership. With the Lend-Lease Act, Roosevelt also enabled limited aid to Ethiopia, including supplies and military assistance, as the U.S. saw Ethiopia as an ally against fascist powers.
1933–1945, Democrat
D
Harry S. Truman
Ethiopia and the U.S. entered a defense cooperation agreement during the Cold War, with military and technical aid bolstering Ethiopia’s standing as a regional ally against communism. Haile Selassie received U.S. assistance to modernize his administration and strengthen Ethiopia’s army.

In 1945, after World War II, the U.S. established its first formal diplomatic mission in Ethiopia, signaling a shift toward greater engagement. This was a critical step in forming a closer bilateral relationship.

In 1949, Truman launched the Point Four Program, a significant foreign aid initiative to support economic and technological development in developing countries, including Ethiopia.
1945–1953, Democrat
D
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Eisenhower’s second term marked a peak in U.S.-Ethiopian military cooperation. The Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement led to the establishment of Kagnew Station in Asmara, in exchange for which Ethiopia received increased military and economic support. U.S. aid supported infrastructure projects that reinforced Haile Selassie’s control.

In 1957, Eisenhower and Haile Selassie signed the U.S.-Ethiopian Treaty of Amity and Economic Relations, which formalized economic cooperation between the two nations and strengthened Ethiopia’s alignment with the U.S. against communist influences in Africa.

The 1953 Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement included provisions for the supply of arms and defense equipment, leading to long-term military cooperation that included the establishment of U.S.-led training programs for the Ethiopian military.

Haile Selassie visited the United States in 1954, meeting with Eisenhower and addressing Congress.
1953–1961, Republican
R
John F. Kennedy
Under Kennedy, U.S. aid to Ethiopia increased significantly, with the creation of the Peace Corps and USAID projects focused on agriculture, education, and infrastructure. Haile Selassie, a prominent African leader, formed a close relationship with Kennedy, positioning Ethiopia as a key U.S. ally in Africa.

In 1961, Kennedy doubled economic assistance to Ethiopia, focusing on education, health, agriculture, and infrastructure, reinforcing Ethiopia’s modernization efforts.

Kennedy also continued military aid, maintaining and upgrading the Kagnew Station base in Asmara, which remained an essential communication hub for the U.S. in Africa and the Middle East. In 1963, Haile Selassie visited Kennedy in Washington, D.C., symbolizing Ethiopia’s importance to the U.S. during the Cold War.
1961–1963, Democrat
D
Lyndon B. Johnson
Johnson expanded development assistance, with emphasis on agricultural reform and famine prevention. U.S. aid helped Ethiopia’s rural development initiatives. However, political dissent grew domestically, and Johnson’s administration observed but did not intervene in the unrest against Haile Selassie.
1963–1969, Democrat
D
Richard Nixon
Nixon’s administration continued military and economic aid to Ethiopia, viewing Haile Selassie as a regional stabilizer. Ethiopia remained strategically significant, but growing domestic instability and dissatisfaction with Haile Selassie’s rule led to tension. The 1973–1974 famine, which the Ethiopian government initially downplayed, weakened the regime, eventually leading to the 1974 revolution and Haile Selassie’s overthrow.
1969–1974, Republican
R

The Derg Regime and Shifting Alliances (1974–1991)​

Gerald Ford
Amid the Ethiopian Revolution, Haile Selassie was overthrown, and a Marxist military junta, known as the Derg, took power. The U.S. initially withheld major support, unsure of the Derg's leanings, and development assistance declined sharply.Ford’s administration attempted to maintain diplomatic relations but significantly scaled back military aid due to Ethiopia’s Soviet alignment.

By 1974, Ford’s administration began closing Kagnew Station in response to Ethiopia’s changing stance and increased anti-U.S. sentiment from the Derg government. The withdrawal marked the end of the U.S. strategic base in Ethiopia, significantly altering the nature of U.S.-Ethiopian relations.
1974-1977, Republican
R
Jimmy Carter
Ethiopia, under the Derg and its leader Mengistu Haile Mariam, aligned itself with the Soviet Union, receiving Soviet military aid. The U.S., however, maintained limited humanitarian support, particularly during the devastating famines that began in the early 1980s, despite strained political relations.

The U.S. was critical of the Derg’s actions, and this human rights-centered criticism led to an increasingly strained relationship. Carter’s administration maintained a critical stance toward Mengistu’s government, choosing diplomacy over engagement with a regime committing significant abuses.
1977-1981, Democrat
D
Ronald Reagan
During Ethiopia's catastrophic famine, the U.S. played a prominent role in providing humanitarian aid despite Mengistu's Marxist policies. Reagan approved substantial humanitarian assistance, but broader aid was limited due to ideological differences. Ethiopia’s reliance on Soviet support deepened, but famine relief initiatives like Live Aid helped galvanize U.S. public support for Ethiopia.

Despite strained diplomatic relations, the Reagan administration provided some humanitarian aid during the Ethiopian famine of 1983–1985, a devastating event that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians. Direct U.S. assistance was provided in response to international pressure and public outcry, with aid specifically designated for famine relief rather than government support.
1981-1989, Republican
R

Post-Derg, Democratization, and Economic Engagement (1991–2000s)

George H.W. Bush
With the collapse of the Derg, Ethiopia's transitional government, led by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), sought closer ties with the U.S. in exchange for support in political restructuring. U.S. aid resumed with a focus on economic reform, democratization, and stability.

Bush Sr. continued and expanded humanitarian aid to Ethiopia, particularly during the 1991–1992 famine and the final years of the Ethiopian Civil War. This aid focused on famine relief and emergency assistance to help Ethiopia stabilize amid political turmoil.
1989–1993, Republican
R
Bill Clinton
The introduction of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) provided duty-free access for Ethiopian exports to the U.S. AGOA, in subsequent years, transformed the textile and garment sector in Ethiopia, creating tens of thousands of jobs and strengthening trade relations. This act also cemented Ethiopia’s shift towards a market-driven economy, aligning its policies more closely with U.S. interests.
D

War on Terror and Growing Military Ties (2000s–2010s)

George W. Bush
Ethiopia emerged as a significant U.S. ally in the Global War on Terror, particularly in combating al-Shabaab in Somalia. Military aid and training programs expanded, making Ethiopia a central partner in regional counter-terrorism efforts. However, human rights issues occasionally strained relations, as Bush’s administration overlooked these in favor of Ethiopia’s strategic position.

Bush launched the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) in 2003, which provided billions of dollars for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and care across Africa, including Ethiopia.
2001–2009, Republican
R
Barack Obama
Obama’s tenure saw continued aid in health and food security, with an emphasis on PEPFAR and Feed the Future programs in Ethiopia. However, human rights issues became a more prominent concern. The Obama administration balanced its aid with public criticism of Ethiopia's treatment of political opponents and journalists, particularly in the lead-up to Ethiopia’s 2015 elections, which were marked by accusations of electoral repression.

Obama’s administration renewed and expanded the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2015, boosting Ethiopia’s export capacity, particularly in textiles and apparel.
D

Recent Controversies and Policy Clashes (2016–Present)

Donald Trump
Trump's administration took a more transactional approach, seeing Ethiopia primarily through the lens of U.S. interests in Egypt and the broader Middle East. Trump notably supported Egypt’s position in the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), aligning with Egypt's fears that Ethiopia's dam could reduce its access to Nile waters. Trump even remarked that Egypt might "blow up" the dam if a settlement wasn’t reached, causing significant outrage in Ethiopia and a diplomatic strain. In 2020, Trump briefly suspended some U.S. aid to Ethiopia, worth approximately $100 million, as a response to Ethiopia’s refusal to accept U.S.-brokered terms on the GERD. This led to tensions between Ethiopia and the U.S., and the aid was later restored.

Aid Under Trump: Ethiopia continued receiving substantial U.S. aid, but relations cooled due to Trump’s support for Egypt. The administration emphasized counter-terrorism and regional stability, with limited focus on Ethiopia’s internal governance issues. In 2020, Trump briefly suspended some U.S. aid to Ethiopia, worth approximately $100 million, as a response to Ethiopia’s refusal to accept U.S.-brokered terms on the GERD. This led to tensions between Ethiopia and the U.S., and the aid was later restored.
2017–2021, Republican
R
Joe Biden
Biden took a more nuanced but still firm stance. The Biden administration revoked Ethiopia's AGOA eligibility, citing human rights abuses in the Tigray conflict. This decision was highly controversial, impacting Ethiopia's textile and manufacturing sector, particularly affecting low-income workers, many of whom were women. The AGOA suspension became a focal point in U.S.-Ethiopia relations, perceived in Ethiopia as punitive and insensitive to the economic realities on the ground.

Humanitarian and Development Aid: Despite the AGOA suspension, the U.S. continued to provide substantial humanitarian assistance, including over $3 billion for food aid, health support, and refugee assistance. Biden’s administration has stressed that future trade agreements and aid allocations will hinge on improved human rights practices and democratic reforms.
2021–2024, Democrat
D

2024 Projections: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Kamala Harris

(Democrat)

Harris would likely prioritize democracy and human rights, taking a critical view of Ethiopia's domestic policies, particularly around Tigray and political inclusivity. Her administration might push Ethiopia for fair governance, potentially affecting U.S. aid and diplomatic engagement.

Harris is supportive of economic development and aid, aligning with Ethiopia’s needs in food security, healthcare, and education. While aid would likely continue, increased support might be linked to human rights and political reforms.

Harris’s focus on climate action could lead to U.S. investment in Ethiopia’s renewable energy sector, such as hydroelectric and solar projects. Ethiopia could gain from expanded green partnerships to mitigate climate impacts.

Harris might aim to enhance U.S.-Ethiopian trade, potentially expanding AGOA or introducing new frameworks to stimulate Ethiopia’s textile and agricultural exports.

Harris would likely continue security collaboration with Ethiopia in counterterrorism, but with greater oversight to ensure U.S. support doesn’t inadvertently contribute to internal repression.

Donald Trump

(Republican)

In a second Trump presidency, U.S.-Ethiopian relations would likely pivot toward a more transactional approach, emphasizing American economic and strategic interests. Trump’s “America First” policy suggests a reduction in foreign aid spending, so Ethiopia might see a decrease in humanitarian and developmental aid unless there’s a clear benefit to the U.S., like countering China’s influence in Africa.

On trade, Trump might reinforce or renegotiate AGOA to ensure more favorable terms for U.S. businesses, possibly benefiting Ethiopia’s textile exports while increasing pressure for market reciprocity. Security partnerships could remain active, especially regarding counterterrorism in the Horn of Africa, though Trump would likely insist on Ethiopia covering more operational costs.

Human rights and governance concerns would likely take a back seat, with Trump prioritizing stability over democracy promotion. This stance could relieve pressure on Ethiopia’s government regarding internal policies, as long as they align with U.S. strategic goals. Overall, a Trump-led White House would be inclined toward a pragmatic, less interventionist approach, potentially reshaping the aid and diplomatic dynamics with Ethiopia.

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